If the strike that has halted production of Boeing 737 Max aircraft continues for a lengthy period of time, U.S. airlines are likely to feel the largest impact.
According to an analysis of Cirium data by Bloomberg Intelligence, Alaska Airlines had expected 14 Max deliveries between September and December, more than any other airline. American was slated to receive 10 Max planes through the end of the year and United expected nine -- placing each airline in the top five in terms of expected deliveries.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts George Ferguson and Melissa Balzano noted, however, that the impact of the delays would be blunted somewhat by their timing, coming as air travel tails off from summer highs.
Overall, U.S. carriers are expected to receive 39 deliveries of 737 Max aircraft during the last four months of the year out of a total 146 global deliveries. Bloomberg anticipates that 36 of those global deliveries will be completed, even if the strike drags on, because they will come out of Boeing's existing inventory. Most likely to receive those deliveries are Air India and Chinese carriers Xiamen, Air China and China Southern.
Boeing machinists from plants in Washington cities Everett and Renton went on strike Friday after more than 94% of members of the local chapter of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers rejected a tentative contract that had been agreed upon by union leaders. It's unclear whether the strike will be a lengthy one.
The union and Boeing management are slated to resume negotiations this week with assistance from federal mediators.
The strike has also halted production of Boeing 777 and 767 widebodies. Bloomberg Intelligence expects the biggest impact for delayed delivery of those planes to be on FedEx and the U.S. Air Force tanker program.